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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 11 December 13
BDI REACHED A PEAK OF YEAR RECORD OF 2,237 POINTS WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MARKET CONDITIONS
Getting closer to the end of 2013, it is important that we have a review of the course the market has taken these past 12 months by looking at the B ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
HNL, AN INDIAN STATE-OWNED NEWSPRINT PAPER MAKER SEEKS 50K TONS OF INDONESIAN 5600 COAL
COALspot.com: Hindustan Newsprint limited (HNL), an Indian state owned news print paper producer invited bids to supply 50,000MT of min 5,200kcal/kg ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
COLOMBIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS SLIPPED 25.54% M-M IN OCTOBER'13
COALspot.com: Colombia's Thermal coal exports in October dropped 25.54% month on month to 5,990,815.13 million mt, according to data from mining de ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS PLUNGE W-O-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 9, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.50 ...
Monday, 09 December 13
SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL EXPORTS IN NOVEMBER DECLINED 14.43% M-M
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay coal terminal exported 6.224 million tonnes of coal in November, declining by 1.05 million tons from the ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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