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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 04 December 13
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS VOLUME AND REVENUE IN OCTOBER MARCHED TOWARDS NORTH
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's 4th largest coal producer and the largest multi grade coal exporter shipped over $1.76* billion worth of ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
WEST AUSTRALIA IRON ORE FIXTURES ALSO CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A STEADY FLOW OF BUSINESS FOR CAPES - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has reversed course this past week, bringing back some of the lost excitement of the past month, as all size segments climbed hi ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
THE BUYERS' DEMAND IS CONTINUOUSLY BULLISH - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The very low rates that prevailed for the bigger part of 2013 seem to have prepared the ground for buying opportunities for shipping investors. The ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
SGX AND CFA TO COLLABORATE TO DEVELOP DERIVATIVES MARKETS IN CHINA AND SINGAPORE
Singapore Exchange (SGX) and the China Futures Association (CFA) are cooperating in the development of derivatives markets in China and Singapore.
...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
SGX'S MONTHLY VOLUMES REACHED A RECORD HIGH OF 705,000 MT IN NOVEMBER 2013
COALspot.com: SGX has announced that, it monthly volumes have reached a record high of 705 lots (705,000 mt) in November 2013 with month-end open in ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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