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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 30 November 13
NTPC STARTED IMPORTING COAL THROUGH NW1 FOR ITS FARAKKA POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: In a pioneering and path breaking operation, the very first consignment of about 69,060 metric tons of imported coal bought by MV HUAY ...
Friday, 29 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET BACK ON HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is strengthening as a result of higher demand for Capesize vessels. The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up by 146 points yesterday, e ...
Wednesday, 27 November 13
DRY SEGMENTS EXCEPTION OF PANAMAXES, REMAINED OVERALL STABLE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com : The Dry Bulk market closed off the week in the red, albeit the decrease noted was of short scale. With the exception of Panamaxes, th ...
Wednesday, 27 November 13
US WHEAT IMPORTS TO BRAZIL, REACHED A 35 - YEAR HIGH - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: As I am going through a number of dry market fixtures reported since the beginning of October, my eyes instinctively stop where they d ...
Wednesday, 27 November 13
SHIP OWNERS ONCE AGAIN TURN TO DRY BULK CARRIERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners once again turned to more dry bulk carrier ordering over the course of the past week, as more and more appear convinced of the industry ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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