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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 26 November 13
EWP INVITES COAL BIDS FOR 2014 - 2018 DELIVERIES
COALspot.com: Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) invited bids to supply 130,000MT of min 5,600kcal/kg (Sub)-bituminous Coal on NCV basis for March ...
Tuesday, 26 November 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIP 22.62% W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 25, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.26 ...
Monday, 25 November 13
THE SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP MOVEMENT IN YEAR 2014 IS STILL FAR FROM PROMISING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 2.54 pmt month on month on Friday 22 Novemb ...
Sunday, 24 November 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY PRICE SHOWS A NEGATIVE TREND WEEK ON WEEK AND FLAT ON D-D
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 0.13 percept d-d on Friday 22 November 2013. The CFR South ...
Sunday, 24 November 13
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES REMAINED FIRM FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA AND CHINA - SOLYM
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady except for the Supramax in SE Asia region which continued to remain firm. The BDI was down by 1.5 ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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