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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 20 November 13
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT 0.825 MMT OF 5000 GAR COAL FOR Q2' 14
COALspot.com: Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 825,000 metric tons of general sub-bituminous coal with calorific value not lesser than 5,000 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 13
CAPES AND PANAMAXES SOFTENING; SMALLER SIZE SEGMENTS FIRMING FURTHER - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable- )
The BDI has closed off the week on the red, with rates for Capes and Panamaxes softening and those fo ...
Tuesday, 19 November 13
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP 1.98% IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has increased government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 1.52 / MT ...
Tuesday, 19 November 13
WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FROM NEWCASTLE PORT INCREASED BY 20.59%
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 18, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.92& ...
Tuesday, 19 November 13
SHIP OWNER POUR MORE MONEY INTO DRY BULK CARRIER ACQUISITIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The recent dry bulk market's rally, coupled with an expected fall in oversupply and robust cargo demand has boosted ship owners' optimism on the l ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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