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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 15 November 13
TAIWAN'S PLASTICS GROUP FORMOSA TO IMPORT 1.37 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 14
COALspot.com: Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for total 1.37 million mt of coal for 1Q’ 14 for its various plants in Taiwan, ...
Thursday, 14 November 13
KOMIPO TO BUY 270K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 14
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International Open Bidding for 140,000 Metric Tons (MT) of sub-bituminous coal ...
Thursday, 14 November 13
PANAMAX : MARKET SHOULD BE AROUND USD 11500 FOR 1 YEAR - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market has picked up this week with prompt ships able USG for November dates coming off and chrts need to pay up in order to cov ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
Y'14 SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP MOVING AT SNAIL-SPEED
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’2014 delivery gained 2.95 percept month on month on Friday ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
Q3' 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1' 14 PRICES
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery gained 0.55 percept W-W on Friday 8 November 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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