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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 03 December 13
PORT OF NEWCASTLE IN QUEENSLAND SHIPPED 1.22 MMT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 2, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.49 ...
Tuesday, 03 December 13
U.S PRODUCED 900.80 MMST YEAR-TO-DATE
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Monday, 02 December 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN Q1 AND Q3 DELIVERIES ARE VERY MARGINAL
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.67 pmt month on month on Friday 29 Novemb ...
Sunday, 01 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERY SHOWS A DECLINE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 0.63 percept d-d on Friday 29 November 2013. The CFR South ...
Sunday, 01 December 13
PANAMAX RATES HAVE REBOUNDED - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market was quite firm last week with all the indices increased. Cape Index was gained highest this week which supports inc ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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