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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 03 October 13
INDONESIA AUGUST COAL EXPORTS FALL 12.90 % FROM JULY TO 30.71 MIL MT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the 15th largest economy in world, 4th largest coal producer in world and world's largest multi grade coal exporter ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
TOP FOUR U.S. COAL COMPANIES SUPPLIED MORE THAN HALF OF U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2011 - EIA
In the past two years, more than half of U.S. coal production was attributable to the top four coal producers, the result of changes in regional pro ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
HANDY: PERIOD MARKET STAND IN GOOD POSITION - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Nickel ore and Bauxite was active last week but slowed down now due to Chinese holidays. Ships opened in North China fixed at US$ 11-13k leve ...
Wednesday, 02 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL MAINTAINING ITS UPWARD DIRECTION
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+)
Despite the fact that rates for Capes didn't continue their crazy ride this past week, the Dry Bulk market ...
Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with t ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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