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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 07 October 13
Q3'14 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 6.53% HIGHER THAN Q4'13
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery gained 0.53 % on day and fell 2.33 percept month on month ...
Sunday, 06 October 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET STAYS STEADY IN SPITE CHINESE HOLIDAYS - SOLYM CARRIERS SINGAPORE
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to remain firm in spite of Chinese holidays.
The BDI closed at 2,084 points on Friday 4 October or up ...
Saturday, 05 October 13
CAPESIZE EARNINGS SKYROCKET AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CHINA DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
An increased iron ore demand has triggered this latest dry bulk rally, which could get yet another boost during next week, when China is expected to ...
Friday, 04 October 13
NICKEL ORE SHIPMENTS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM LOSSES
One of the most pressing problems for the bulk shipping industry is the safe carriage of nickel ore. The increasing demand for this commodity is fue ...
Friday, 04 October 13
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.1% WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.70 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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