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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 12 October 13
PANAMAX: OWNERS ARE AT US$ 17-18.5K PER DAY; CHARTERERS ARE AT US$ 15.5-16K - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The futures market was heavily down on the cape size vessels and the physical average charterer rates on cape size vessels dropped by ...
Friday, 11 October 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATE POSITIVE MOMENTUM TO BE SUPPORTED BY HIGHER DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
BIMCO released its latest short term research on the shipping markets, estimating that the elevated level of Capesize TC average rates i ...
Friday, 11 October 13
US COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7.70% IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 17.70 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 10 October 13
NPC AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 2.99 MILLION TONS OF COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 12.04 per cent week on week to 2.99 million mt for ...
Thursday, 10 October 13
SEVERAL PANAMAX FIXTURES FOR 1 YEAR TC HAVE BEEN REPORTED AROUND $13.5K/DAY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The market is not much fancy as several holidays in the Far East last week. Tonnage side seems tight in SE Asia but there are many of them in ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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