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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 15 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 6.50% MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 6.50 per cent week on week to 3.19 million mt for ...
Monday, 14 October 13
MEMR OF INDONESIA SETS THE COAL'S SPOT PRICE AT US$ 76.61 FOR OCT'13 DELIVERY
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised down government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 0.28/ MT to US$ 76.61 for October 2013 d ...
Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's Pres ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
Q4'13 DELIVERY SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP FALLS SEVEN STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 1.72 percept month on month on Friday 11 October 201 ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - AVERAGE Q4 2013 DELIVERY FELL 0.30 PERCEPT ON WEEK
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.30 percept week on week on Friday 11 October 2013. The CFR South ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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