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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 17 October 13
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS DOWN 9.4% TO 25.96 MMT IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: China's August Imported coal volumes down 9.4% m-m but up 27% y-y, BNP said in its latest China Coal & Power report released on 1 ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
NEW STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A RAPIDLY EVOLVING COAL INDUSTRY
The 12th Annual Coal Markets assumes even more significance as the industry seeks more market information, inputs on trade strategies, supply and de ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
CAPES: RATES DROPPED; PANAMAX: ADVANCED - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of straight weekly positive closings, the BDI has finished the week in the red. Monday started slow as holidays in the East ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or jus ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
KOSEP TO IMPORT 0.49 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL FOR JAN - FEB '14
COALspot.com - Korea South-East Power Co., a Korean generator and distributor of electricity on behalf of five Korean Gencos intends to procure 490, ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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