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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 17 October 13
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS DOWN 9.4% TO 25.96 MMT IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: China's August Imported coal volumes down 9.4% m-m but up 27% y-y, BNP said in its latest China Coal & Power report released on 1 ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
NEW STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A RAPIDLY EVOLVING COAL INDUSTRY
The 12th Annual Coal Markets assumes even more significance as the industry seeks more market information, inputs on trade strategies, supply and de ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
CAPES: RATES DROPPED; PANAMAX: ADVANCED - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of straight weekly positive closings, the BDI has finished the week in the red. Monday started slow as holidays in the East ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or jus ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
KOSEP TO IMPORT 0.49 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL FOR JAN - FEB '14
COALspot.com - Korea South-East Power Co., a Korean generator and distributor of electricity on behalf of five Korean Gencos intends to procure 490, ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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