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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 17 October 13
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS DOWN 9.4% TO 25.96 MMT IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: China's August Imported coal volumes down 9.4% m-m but up 27% y-y, BNP said in its latest China Coal & Power report released on 1 ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
NEW STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A RAPIDLY EVOLVING COAL INDUSTRY
The 12th Annual Coal Markets assumes even more significance as the industry seeks more market information, inputs on trade strategies, supply and de ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
CAPES: RATES DROPPED; PANAMAX: ADVANCED - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of straight weekly positive closings, the BDI has finished the week in the red. Monday started slow as holidays in the East ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or jus ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
KOSEP TO IMPORT 0.49 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL FOR JAN - FEB '14
COALspot.com - Korea South-East Power Co., a Korean generator and distributor of electricity on behalf of five Korean Gencos intends to procure 490, ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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