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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 22 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SERVED 38 OCEAN GOING VESSELS IN A WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 0.64 per cent week on week to 3.21 million mt for ...
Tuesday, 22 October 13
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR MULTI GRADE COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO), a Korean electricity generator intends to procure 240,000 tons of multi grade coal for its Ta ...
Monday, 21 October 13
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR 2014 DELIVERIES SHOW A POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.02 percept M-M on Friday 18 October 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Sunday, 20 October 13
Q3'14 SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 61.80 PMT W/E 18 OCT' 13
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.93 percept month on month on Friday 18 October 201 ...
Saturday, 19 October 13
NICKEL ORE SHIPMENTS KEEP SUPRAMAX CHARTER RATES STEADY - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The futures freight market continued to go down which was reflected in the physical markets as well.
The BDI continued to be soft ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
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