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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 25 October 13
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED TOTALLED 803.1 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.10 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 24 October 13
PANAMAX: RATES SLIP ACROSS BOTH HEMISPHERES
Handy
We were back from holidays but still not much enquiries in the market. Overall future direction is uncertain. Currently, ships passing Singap ...
Thursday, 24 October 13
SHIP PRICES ARE INCREASING ON THE BACK OF IMPROVED MARKET SENTIMENT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on retreating from its recent highs, ending yesterday at 1,786 points, down 61 points on the day, with Capesizes leadin ...
Wednesday, 23 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF STABILITY - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Stable-)
The Dry Bulk market has shown signs of stability this past week, with the sole exception of Capes, rates f ...
Wednesday, 23 October 13
MARKET SENTIMENT IN THE DRY BULK SECTOR REMAINS POSITIVE - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
Market sentiment in the dry bulk sector remains positive despite the latest correction in freight rates for the Capesize sector, which are sliding f ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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