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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 29 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.29 PER CENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 12.29 per cent week on week to 3.61 million mt for ...
Monday, 28 October 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL FOR Q3'14 DELIVERY LOST ON D-D,W-W & M-M
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.22 percept M-M on Friday 25 October 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Monday, 28 October 13
COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON D-D, W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery gained 0.46 percept month on month on Friday 25 October 2 ...
Saturday, 26 October 13
PANAMAX CHARTER RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA STAY FIRM - SOLYM
COALspot.com: The freight market showed tendency of softness with Cape and Panamax futures and physical soft.
The BDI was down by 12 pct week end ...
Saturday, 26 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RETREATING, BUT NEW BUILDING ORDERS KEEP ON PILING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market kept on retreating this week, with the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) falling to 1,708 points, down 78 on the ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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