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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 09 October 13
PANAMAX: FIRM ; FIXING ACTIVITY INCREASED IN BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
This was another week of gains for the Dry Bulk market, albeit very modest ones compared to the previous ones. Charterers and owners struggled for t ...
Tuesday, 08 October 13
CHINA: INTENSE COMPETITION AMONG DOMESTIC COAL MINERS AS 2013 IMPORT DEMAND REMAINS STRONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
Prices will not fall under RMB500/t or risk supply availability to the coastal market
Despite China's lower economic growth, Wood Mackenzie says ...
Monday, 07 October 13
RICHARD BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 49.94 MMT OF COAL YTD
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the world's single largest coal terminal has shipped 49,946,509 mt of coals YTD, according to por ...
Monday, 07 October 13
SOUTH AFRICA'S RBCT SHIPPED 7.94% MORE COAL IN SEPT' 13
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the single largest coal export terminal in South Africa as well as in the world has shipped 7.94 p ...
Monday, 07 October 13
SGX - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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