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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 09 October 13
PANAMAX: FIRM ; FIXING ACTIVITY INCREASED IN BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
This was another week of gains for the Dry Bulk market, albeit very modest ones compared to the previous ones. Charterers and owners struggled for t ...
Tuesday, 08 October 13
CHINA: INTENSE COMPETITION AMONG DOMESTIC COAL MINERS AS 2013 IMPORT DEMAND REMAINS STRONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
Prices will not fall under RMB500/t or risk supply availability to the coastal market
Despite China's lower economic growth, Wood Mackenzie says ...
Monday, 07 October 13
RICHARD BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 49.94 MMT OF COAL YTD
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the world's single largest coal terminal has shipped 49,946,509 mt of coals YTD, according to por ...
Monday, 07 October 13
SOUTH AFRICA'S RBCT SHIPPED 7.94% MORE COAL IN SEPT' 13
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the single largest coal export terminal in South Africa as well as in the world has shipped 7.94 p ...
Monday, 07 October 13
SGX - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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