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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 01 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET POISED FOR RETREAT ON CHINA HOLIDAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The start of a national weeklong in China as of Tuesday is expected to put a lid in the latest rally of the dry bulk freight market, as has always b ...
Monday, 30 September 13
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME CONTINUES TO SLIP
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 8.38 per cent week on week to 2.67 million mt fo ...
Monday, 30 September 13
PANAMAX CHARTER RATES TOUCHING US$ 18K FOR A TRIP TO NOPAC - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The freight market continued to remain firm, BDI and the Panamax index up week ended 27 September 2013.
The cape index was fell to ...
Sunday, 29 September 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3 2014 DELIVERY SWAP GAINED $1.19 M-O-M
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Sunday, 29 September 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP FELL ON MONTH AND WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 3.93 percept month on month on Friday 27 September 2 ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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