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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 27 September 13
TAIWAN'S FORMOSA TO IMPORT 140K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q4
COALspot.com : Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for 140,000 mt of bituminous coal for delivery in the Q4 for its China plant.
Ac ...
Friday, 27 September 13
CAPESIZES REGAINING PART OF THEIR FORMER GLORY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The latest dry bulk market rally has been nothing short of spectacular, with freight rates more than doubling over the past few weeks. This growth h ...
Friday, 27 September 13
US PRODUCED 19.30 MMST OF COAL IN SEVEN DAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.30 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUE WITH STRONG RATES IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Feast rates are still firm, some fresh stems entered the market. Vessels trading around $15k passing Singapore for coal to India, and a bit l ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
INTERCARGO PUBLISHES BENCHMARKING BULK CARRIERS 2012-13 REPORT
The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (Intercargo) has today launched Benchmarking Bulk Carriers 2012-13, the latest edition of our ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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