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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 27 April 13
HANDY : SLIDING ; PANAMAX : POSITIVE ; CAPESIZE : STILL ON ITS KNEES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets started sliding with no fresh cargoes seen in the market. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Black sea-Feast was at USD 11 ...
Saturday, 27 April 13
2ND CHINA INTERNATIONAL SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - 2nd China International Shale Gas Summit, 10-13 September 2013 | Chengdu, China
*The largest annual event for the shale gas indus ...
Friday, 26 April 13
LIMA SUMMIT IN JULY TO HIGHLIGHT LATIN AMERICAN MINING POTENTIAL
COALspot.com - Latin American mining industry officials and their private sector counterparts will be gathering in Lima, Peru on July 1-2 for the La ...
Wednesday, 24 April 13
FUTURE US POWER MARKET SHARES OF COAL, NATURAL GAS GENERATORS DEPEND ON RELATIVE FUEL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com - In recent years, in US, natural gas competed more effectively with coal as a fuel for electricity generation as the cost of operating ...
Tuesday, 23 April 13
INDONESIAN STATE OWNED COAL MINER SHIPPED 4 PERCENT MORE COAL IN 1Q
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam, the Indonesian state owned coal miner shipped more coal in first quarter of this year compared to the same period in ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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