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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 01 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.14 PER CENT MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,997,729 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 29 April 2013, Newca ...
Tuesday, 30 April 13
KATINGAN RIA THERMAL COAL TO START PRODUCTION FROM EARLY 2014
COALspot.com - Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX: RRP) has announced the completion of the Feasibility Study for its 51% owned Katingan Ria thermal co ...
Monday, 29 April 13
FIRST TRADES OF SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com - The SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap went live for clearing on SGX-DC today with a total volume of 25,000 metric tonnes (25 lots). ...
Sunday, 28 April 13
SUB BIT INDONESIA COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average May 2013 delivery has gained 0.34 percent and CFR South China coal shipment gai ...
Sunday, 28 April 13
PANAMAX FREIGHT COULD BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This BDI closed slightly lower at 871 points (down by 1.91 pct) mainly due to drop in the Panamax index by almost 10 pct.
Th ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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