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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 23 April 13
REALM CONTINUES AS 51% OWNER AND MANAGER OF THE KATINGAN RIA THERMAL COAL PROJECT
COALspot.com - Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX: RRP) has announced today that, the commercial way forward for the development of its 51% held Indonesian t ...
Tuesday, 23 April 13
TIGERS REALM COAL HAS SOME OF THE WORLD'S BEST UNDEVELOPED COKING COAL ASSETS - EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN
COALspot.com - “ During 2012, your Company has made very significant progress towards meeting its stated objective of becoming a global player ...
Tuesday, 23 April 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT COAL SHIPMENTS DROPPED BY 4.38 PERCENT W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,434,336 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 22 April 2013, Newca ...
Sunday, 21 April 13
INDONESIA - INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES ARE FIRMING UP - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com – The BDI was up by 1.40 pct closed at 888 points week ended 19 April 2013. The Cape index was down by 2.45 pct closing at 1234 p ...
Friday, 19 April 13
FIRST QUARTER OF 2013 PROVEN A POSITIVE SURPRISE FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite ominous predictions regarding the negative performance of the dry bulk market during the – traditionally weak anyway – first qua ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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