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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 18 April 13
HANDY: STABLE ; PANAMAX: BUSY WEEK - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets remain stable in this week. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 12k. The Pacific market is bit f ...
Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fai ...
Wednesday, 17 April 13
INDONESIA SHIPPED 80 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST QUARTER - COAL DIRECTOR
COALspot.com - Indonesia has exported around 80 million tons of coal including power plant coal in first three months of this year.
Speaking on t ...
Tuesday, 16 April 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS JUMPED 20.87 PER CENT ON WEEK TO 3.07 MMT
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,077,431 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 15 April 2013, Newca ...
Monday, 15 April 13
SUB - BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.70 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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