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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 10 April 13
US COAL CONSUMPTION TO INCREASE FROM 889 MMST IN 2012 TO 948 MMST IN 2013 AND 957 MMST IN 2014 - EIA
Based on estimates for the first quarter of 2013, American coal production has continued to decline.
Total production is down 9.9 million short t ...
Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per ...
Monday, 08 April 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UPWARD TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.71 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 07 April 13
CHARTER RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO DECLINING DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to fall further with all the indices down.
The BDI was down by 5.38 pct closing at 861 points and the ...
Friday, 05 April 13
SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS TO GO LIVE
COALspot.com - The Exchange has announced that the SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap will go live for clearing on SGX-DC starting from 29 Ap ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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