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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 04 April 13
HANDY:QUIET ; PANAMAX: SLOW START; CAPESIZE: LOW ACTIVITIES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets remain quiet as charterers and owners waiting to see how it moves. The USG-Feast was at USD 20k and Black Sea-Feast was ...
Wednesday, 03 April 13
HBA HAS LOST US$ 1.53 PER MT IN APRIL 2013
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal bench mark price has lost $1.53 / MT in April 2013.
The monthly coal referen ...
Tuesday, 02 April 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 633K MT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,029,482 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 1 April 2013, Newcas ...
Tuesday, 02 April 13
THE GOVERNORS TO TAKE OVER AUTHORITY OF MINING, FORESTRY AND PLANTATION CONCESSIONS
The Indonesian government is planning to transfer the authority of issuing mining, forestry and plantation concessions from municipalities and distr ...
Sunday, 31 March 13
COAL FREIGHTS ARE IN FLAT TO WEAK TREND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market after several weeks of firming up seemed to lose steam and this week all the indices were down except for handy s ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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