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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 29 March 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UP 0.55 % WOW; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT: UP 0.23 % WOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.55 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Thursday, 28 March 13
SHIP OWNERS KEEN ON ACQUIRING SECOND HAND TONNAGE, AS WELL AS NEW BUILDINGS IN CONVENTIONAL SEGMENTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The recent rally of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), coupled with renewed optimism, at least in some parts of the wet market, have prompted many ship own ...
Wednesday, 27 March 13
PTBA HAS CONCLUDED US$ 16.14 BILLION WORTH OF COAL SALES AND PURCHASE AGREEMENT WITH PLN
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam, a 32 years old Indonesian state owned coal miner has signed a coal sales and purchase agreement with PT PLN, (a state ...
Wednesday, 27 March 13
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL FOR TWO YEARS - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry recovered to their highest level for two years in the three months ended February 2013, according ...
Tuesday, 26 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.39 MMT OF COAL W/E 25 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2.396 million tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 25 March 2013, N ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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