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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 21 March 13
HANDY : RBCT ROUNDS FIXED AT $ 9000 + 300K BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market remains firm with cargoes seen to support healthy rates as per last week. The USG-Feast was at USD 25k and Black Sea-Feas ...
Wednesday, 20 March 13
NTPC TO IMPORT SEVEN MILLION TONS COAL FOR FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com : NTPC Limited (formerly National Thermal Power Corporation) is the largest Indian state-owned electric utilities company has awarded&n ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
CHINA GAS PRICE REFORMS AND APAC GAS PRICING - FITCH STREET VIEW
Fitch Ratings says pricing reform in the Chinese gas sector is unlikely to materially impact gas distributors' margins, and low gas prices in the U ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FALL BY 4.27 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,365,561 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 18 March 2013, Newcast ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
SHIP PRICES COULD BE CLOSING IN TO REACH THEIR BOTTOM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
One of the latest developments in shipping asset prices has been the reluctance from shipyards to further reduce their price expectations to higher ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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