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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 14 March 13
SHIPPERS AND CARRIERS NEED GREATER COMMUNICATION AND MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING
Press Release – Shippers and shipping lines both need to raise their game if global container supply chains are not to be habitually subject t ...
Wednesday, 13 March 13
NEWBUILDING PRICES EXHIBIT NO FALL IN PAST SIX MONTHS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Despite the fact that oversupply has been the key plague of the shipping markets in recent years and newbuilding ordering activity has receded subst ...
Tuesday, 12 March 13
COAL MINING PRIVATIZATION IN INDIA: MUST - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - India has the one of the richest coal reserves in the world and the country should have shown significant progress and gained the pos ...
Tuesday, 12 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.47 MILLION TONS OF COAL W/E 11 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,471,080 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 11 March 2013, Newcast ...
Monday, 11 March 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FELL 1.41 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 1.41percent and CFR South China coal shipment ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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