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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 07 March 13
PANAMAX : POSITIVE TREND; CAPESIZE : GRADUALLY SLIDE - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week and rates ticking upwards. The USG-Feast was at USD 22k and Black sea-feast was at USD 12k. The ...
Tuesday, 05 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 20.77 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 4 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,631,562 MT of thermal and coking coal for a week ended 0700 hours 4 March 2013, Newcas ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL SWAPS; CHINA CONTRACTS FALL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 0.75 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
FREIGHT MARKET FROM INDONESIA EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – The freight market has been fairly firm this week except for cape size index.
The BDI was up by 4.64 points closing at 776 p ...
Thursday, 28 February 13
INDIA HAS INCREASED CUSTOMS DUTY AND COUNTERVAILING DUTY FOR POWER PLANT COAL
COALspot.com : The government of India raised basic customs duty and countervailing duty on steam coal. In the meantime government has reduced& ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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