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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 28 February 13
SHIP OWNERS EXPECTED TO FACE A CHALLENGING YEAR, DESPITE THE FALL OF NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tonnage oversupply and a lagging growth in world trade demand are expected to keep shipping in the "red", despite a series of measures ado ...
Thursday, 28 February 13
PANAMAX : MARKET HAS SEEN A GOOD UPTURN OVER THE LAST WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week and rates ticking upwards. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 11k. The ...
Wednesday, 27 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT IN AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 0.358 MILLION MT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,178,869 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 25 February 2013, Newc ...
Wednesday, 27 February 13
NEWLEAD HOLDINGS LTD. ANNOUNCES COAL SUPPLY AND DELIVERY CONTRACT
NewLead Holdings Ltd. yesterday announced that the Company has signed an agreement to supply and deliver 1.48 million metric tons of steam coal to a ...
Tuesday, 26 February 13
10TH CLEAN COAL FORUM WILL BE HELD ON JUNE 2013
CDMC Events will be presenting the 10th Clean Coal Forum 2013 on June 13 - 14, 2013 in Beijing,China.
It will make you understand regulatory asp ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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