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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Roth ...
Tuesday, 19 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 38.65 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 1,820,559 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 18 February 2013, Newc ...
Monday, 18 February 13
78.75 MILLION TONS OF COAL RESERVES ARE NEWLY PROVEN IN WUGANG HUNAN PROVINCE
COALspot.com - Recently, Wugang City, known as the CHINA hundred key coal producing cities, achieved new breakthroughs in coal exploration: deep coa ...
Sunday, 17 February 13
STEEL DEMAND WILL HELP TO PUSH UP FREIGHT RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market has been fairly steady week ended 15 February 2013.
The BDI was slightly up by 0.67 pct closing at 753 points ...
Friday, 15 February 13
2ND ANNUAL INDONESIA MINING 2013 CONFERENCE
Bringing Indonesia's Mining Stakeholders Together Towards Improving Mining Investment Climate & Operations
Following the success of th ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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