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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 11 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.01 PERCENT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,967,761 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 11 February 2013, Newc ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
INDONESIA SUB-BIT SWAPS: "UP" - CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS: "DOWN"
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.72 percent W-O-W and CFR South China coal shipme ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
DRY BULK OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE SEEN WANING IN THE COMING MONTHS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It seems that the tide could be shifting in the dry bulk market, in terms of tonnage oversupply, according to the latest data figures. This could ex ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
HIGHER BUNKER PRICE PUSHES SEA FREIGHTS FIRM - REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was soft and all at same levels with Chinese year holidays next week.
The BDI was slightly down by 0.27 pct ad ...
Friday, 08 February 13
NORTH P&I CLUB WARNS OF LIQUEFACTION RISK FOR BAUXITE CARGOES
The ‘A’ rated 170 million GT North P&I club has warned shipowners carrying bauxite aluminium ore cargoes that they have the potentia ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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