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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 07 February 13
CHINA NDRC APPROVED 10 BILLION YUAN POWER GENERATION PROJECTS
NDRC of China currently announced that some of power grid and power station in Jiangxu, Sichuan and Anhui Province would be newly constructed or ext ...
Thursday, 07 February 13
CAPESIZE : MORE ACTIVE WEEK IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remained stable with no significant movement in rates. Rates from USG to FEast were around USD 18k and Black Sea to Feast ...
Thursday, 07 February 13
WEAK STEEL MARKET MEANS IRON ORE RALLY LIKELY TO END SOON - FITCH
The sharp rebound in iron ore prices over the last couple of months will hurt margins at non-integrated steel producers in the first quarter of 2013 ...
Tuesday, 05 February 13
THE SHIPPING SECTOR IS " NAVIGATING IN STORMY WATERS" - PWC
The vulnerabilities of the global economy have been exposed and have more than played their part in making 2011 one of the worst years of shipping i ...
Tuesday, 05 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT COAL SHIPMENTS DROPPED BY 10.77 PERCENT W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,412,497 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 4 February 2013, Newca ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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