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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 17 March 13
A WEAK WEEK FOR SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 2.11 percent and CFR South China coal shipment ...
Sunday, 17 March 13
COAL FREIGHT RATES STEADY ON HIGHER DEMAND - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This freight market continued to remain firm in all segments.
The BDI was up by 5.81 pct closing at 892 points. Cape index was up ...
Friday, 15 March 13
CHEAP SHIP VALUATIONS DON'T NECESSARILY MEAN ATTRACTIVE SAYS VESSELS VALUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With ship prices plunging by double-digits in the past few years, many ship owners are pondering their next moves in a market often described as att ...
Thursday, 14 March 13
SUPRAMAX : INDO - INDIA TRIP RATE IS AROUND $10,000; SOUTH CHINA $9500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Indian market is still quiet in respect of export of iron ore. WC India market has improved with a few stems out of the MEG, WC India opening ...
Thursday, 14 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RISING MOMENTUM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has maintained its rising momentum, on the back of increased cargo availability. According to yesterday's figures, the industry ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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