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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 06 May 13
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS CONTINUE
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal bench mark price has lost $ 3.23 / MT in May 2013.
The monthly coal pr ...
Sunday, 05 May 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL - MIXED TREND; API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average June 2013 delivery has gained 0.28 percent and API 8 CFR South China Coal shipment&nb ...
Saturday, 04 May 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA PANAMAX FREIGHT : FLAT TO SOFT - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The demand for iron ore picked up and its pushed up the cape size index by 7.86 pct. Cape index closed at 1,344 points. The BDI ...
Friday, 03 May 13
US PRODUCED 17.9 MILLION SHORT TONS (MMST) OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com - U.S. produced totaled approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) in a week (For the week ended April 27, 2013), EIA said in its lat ...
Friday, 03 May 13
SHIP OWNERS ARE INVESTING HEAVILY IN DRY BULK CARRIER NEWBUILDINGS ONCE MORE: IS THERE ANY RATIONALE? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market remains heavily oversupplied and just as the orderbook of newbuildings had began to shrink, it seems that sh ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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