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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 14 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS FALL 6.83 PERCENT
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,771,891 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 13 May 2013, Newcast ...
Monday, 13 May 13
SGX ASIACLEAR OTC COAL SWAPS : RELATIVELY STABLE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average June 2013 delivery has gained 0.15 percent and API 8 CFR South China Coal shipment&nb ...
Saturday, 11 May 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com - This week the market remained flat compared to last week. BDI slightly up 0.68 pct and closed at 884 points and the cape size index u ...
Friday, 10 May 13
U.S. PRODUCED TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 18.5 MMST OF COAL W/E 4 MAY 2013
COALspot.com - U.S. produced totaled approximately 18.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a week (For the week ended 4 May, 2013), EIA said in it ...
Thursday, 09 May 13
KILLARA AUSTRALIA ACQUIRES 80% INTEREST IN BORNEO EMAS HITAM
COALspot.com - Killara Resources has announced that, the company has signed a binding MoU to acquire an 80% equity interest in PT. Borneo Emas Hitam ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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