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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 19 May 13
COAL PRICES ARE SLUMPING DUE TO WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have gained 0.03 percent and API 8 CFR South China Coal shipment g ...
Sunday, 19 May 13
FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN UNSTABLE AND VOLATILE - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com – The freight remained weak this week with all the segments down.
The BDI, the Baltic Dry Index is a number issued daily by th ...
Friday, 17 May 13
US COAL PRODUCTION CLIMBED 3.35 PER CENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - U.S. produced totaled approximately 18.50 million short tons (mmst) in a week (For the week ended May 11, 2013), EIA said in its late ...
Thursday, 16 May 13
PANAMAX: THE FORWARD CURVE IS FALLING GRADUALLY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market remained quiet. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 11k. The Pacific market remained uncertain as ...
Tuesday, 14 May 13
KALIMANTAN COAL
Press Release : After a very successful conference in 2012, the second annual event will address latest market developments and address the future p ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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