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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 29 May 13
SHIP OWNERS KEEP ON SPENDING ON NEWBUILDINGS AS PRICES ARE DEEMED TOO LOW TO RESIST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It's been yet another week on increased newbuilding ordering activity with Hellenic ship owners appearing rathe active, on the back of attractive f ...
Tuesday, 28 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 9.76 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 27 MAY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,420,366 tons of coal for week ended 0700 hours 27 May 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. said ...
Sunday, 26 May 13
AMPLE SUPPLY, LOW DEMAND KEEP COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 0.07 percent and API 8 CFR South China Coal shipment los ...
Friday, 24 May 13
ENGAGEMENT WITH POTENTIAL STRATEGIC AND OFF TAKE PARTNERS ACCELERATING - REALM RESOURCES
COALspot.com - Following the recent completion of the Feasibility Study, the Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX: RRP) has focused on securing strategic ...
Friday, 24 May 13
US'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.90 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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