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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong ap ...
Saturday, 01 June 13
COAL PRICES STRUGGLE TO FIRM UP
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have gained 0.18 percent week on week and 0.03 percent ...
Saturday, 01 June 13
THE FREIGHT MARKET FOR S7 AND S8 SECTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – The freights are remains weak week ended 31 May 2013, as BDI fell 2.05 pct and closed at 809 points on 31 May 2013.
The Cape ...
Friday, 31 May 13
US PRODUCED 18.5 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL W/E 25 MAY 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 18.50 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 30 May 13
HANDY: RBCT ROUND WAS AROUND USD 9K + 300 BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
THE Atlantic market remained flat. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 12k. The Pacific market remained quiet with no ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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