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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 11 June 13
COAL: NO SIGN OF RECOVERY - GABRIELLA
COALspot.com: We attended the 19th Annual Coaltrans Asia Conference, where we found most of the speakers were not very optimistic on the outlook for ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ENDED 11 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,104,509 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 11 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 0.03 percent week on week but gained 0.07 pe ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
IRON ORE DEMAND: WEAK; COAL MOVEMENT: STEADY TO INDIA AND CHINA - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with BDI up by 0.37 per cent closed at 812 points this week.
The Cape index was also ended in ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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