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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 14 June 13
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 18.20 MILLION SHORT TONS W/E 8 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.20 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 13 June 13
HANDY: SHORT PERIOD WERE FIXED AT AROUND USD 9000 LEVEL
Handy
Despite falling rates for bigger sizes, the Supras in Atlantic are seeing some improvements with fresh biz. US Gulf positions fetching tick a ...
Thursday, 13 June 13
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF EAGLE PROJECT FOR AN ESTIMATED US$325 MILLION IN CASH
COALspot.com - Rio Tinto has reached a binding agreement to sell its Eagle project to Lundin Mining Corporation for an estimated US$325 million in c ...
Thursday, 13 June 13
HARD COAL IMPORTS RISE SHARPLY IN GERMANY IN Q1 2013 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Coal-fired Power Plants in Germany: Pillars of the Grid and the Energy Turnaround; Hard Coal Consumption and Hard Coal Imports Rise Sharply in Germa ...
Wednesday, 12 June 13
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIDES TO 2013 LOW
COALspot.com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference continues to take its lumps this month, dropping about 0.54 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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