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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 25 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED OUT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,101,378 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 24 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Monday, 24 June 13
INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR AUGUST 2013 DELIVERY GAINS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – Coal prices for immediate supply contracts have started moving up, but prices for next year supply shows a negative trend ...
Sunday, 23 June 13
BDI CROSSED ITS PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The BDI crossed the psychological barrier of 1000 points after many months and closed at 1,027 points, which were up by 14.11 pct wee ...
Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, i ...
Friday, 21 June 13
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 19.70 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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