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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 03 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS DIP 24.79 PER CENT WOW
COALspot.com - Newcastle Coal exports fell 24.79% to 2.33 million tons WoW.
Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,332,513 tons of coal for the ...
Monday, 01 July 13
12TH CLEAN COAL FORUM INDONESIA 2013
Press Release: Produced by CDMC Events, The 12th Clean Coal Forum Indonesia 2013 will be held on Dec 5-6,2013 in Jakarta, Indonesia. It will generat ...
Monday, 01 July 13
INDIA AND CHINA STILL DOMINATING THE INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORT MARKET
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's largest multi types coal exporter shipped 35.83* million tons of coal in May 2013, 1.40 per cent l ...
Sunday, 30 June 13
YEAR 2014 INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 2013 LEVEL
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 delivery have gained 0.08 percent on a day lost on week ...
Sunday, 30 June 13
CAPESIZE RATES SEEN INCREASING ON HIGH DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to rise and saw a big gain on Friday. BDI increased 14 per cent week ended 28 June 2013, closed at 1171 points driv ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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