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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 09 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 27.53% ON WEEK TO 2.97 MILLION MT
COALspot.com - Newcastle Coal exports up 27.53% to 2.97 million tons W-o-W.
Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,974,715 tons of coal for the ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
CAPESIZE: SHOT UP; PANAMAXES: NOT SO LUCK; SUPRAS: SLIGHTLY BETTER; HANDIES: SOFT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com : June 2013 Recap
A renewed Capesize market this month (June 2013) was the cause for much of the overall noteworthy performanc ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
THE 11TH DEEP COAL PROCESSING FORUM 2013
Press Release : The 11th Deep Coal Processing Forum 2013 will be held in November Beijing China.
CDMC Events is pleased to announce that 11 ...
Monday, 08 July 13
ECO-FRIENDLY COAL FOR CHINA - VALUE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND VALUE FOR THE POWER GENERATOR - BY: LINDSAY JUNIPER
COALspot.com : January 2013 saw an episode of extreme particulate pollution in Beijing 35 times worse than the safe level recommended by the World H ...
Sunday, 07 July 13
FREIGHT MARKET IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT TO STABLE NEXT WEEK- VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market softened for the week ended 5 July 2013, and experienced a decline in all sectors, including BDI. Bulk dry Index d ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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