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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 15 July 13
INDO COAL SWAPS ARE STRUGGLING FOR RIGHT DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Indo coal swaps are struggling to find the right direction. Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 d ...
Friday, 12 July 13
U.S. PRODUCED 18.40 MMST COAL WEEK ENDED 6 JULY 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.40 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 11 July 13
PANAMAX: PACIFIC ROUND PAY AROUND $6,500/D; ATLANTIC ROUND VOYAGE PAY AROUND US$ 10,000/D - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Feast market is quiet, July date cargoes remain unfixed as there is a gap between what owners aiming and charterers willing to pay. There ...
Wednesday, 10 July 13
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com : With the first half of the year now behind us and, as expected, most shipping segments in the dry bulk market are struggling to survi ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
COAL PRICE REMAINS SLUGGISH - TRIMEGAH
COALspot.com - Newcastle coal price has reached US$ 76.30/ton (-15.9% YTD), bringing YTD’13 average to stand at US$ 87.90/ton, 6.80% lower tha ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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