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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 28 June 13
U.S. PRODUCED 1.52 PERCENT LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 19.40 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 27 June 13
US COAL EXPORTS BEATS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS AS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL COAL TRADE - BIMCO
The influence of American coal exports on seaborne transportation has grown significantly over the past decade. In 2002, the US exported 20.1 millio ...
Thursday, 27 June 13
HANDY : USD 12000 FOR SPOT COAL INDO/CHINA AND AROUND USD 13000 INDO/ECI - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Atlantic rates hold well. Continent to Far East is worth more than USD 14k daily whilst USG to Far East pay 23/24k a day. On the route from B ...
Thursday, 27 June 13
DRY BULK CARRIERS DOMINATE NEWBUILDING ORDERS AS SHIP OWNERS ARE ENCOURAGED BY LATEST FREIGHT RATE RALLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Newbuilding orders for dry bulk carriers were already high, compared to last year, prior to the latest rally of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which ha ...
Tuesday, 25 June 13
CAPESIZE MARKET TO REMAIN BULLISH SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been experiencing its long-awaited rally, with the Baltic Dry Index, the industry's benchmark rising to healthier levels fo ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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