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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 20 June 13
CAPESIZE : FINALLY A SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN RATES! - FEARNLEYS A.S
Handy
Atlantic market kept a steady curve from last week. US Gulf positions fetched tick above USD 21k for Cont/Skaw direction, and vessels fixed f ...
Wednesday, 19 June 13
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 16.05 PERCENT LESS COAL W/E 17 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,606,071 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 17 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Sunday, 16 June 13
WEAK DEMAND KEEPS COAL PRICES LOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 2.94 percent week on week but gained 0.06 percent ...
Saturday, 15 June 13
S7 AND S8 ROUTES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week freight movement was fairly firm with news of China is rebuilding iron ore stockpiles, and ease import rules. Cape and Pana ...
Saturday, 15 June 13
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL FOR TWO AND A HALF YEARS - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose to their highest level for two and a half years in the three months ended May 2013, accordin ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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