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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 07 June 13
MEDITERRANEAN COAL MARKETS
Press Release: 3rd International Conference Mediterranean Coal Markets will be held on 16-17th of September 2013, Istanbul, Turkey, Ceylan Intercont ...
Friday, 07 June 13
US'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED BY 0.54 PER CENT THE WEEK ENDED JUNE 1
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.60 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 06 June 13
WE ARE SEEING SOME FRESH INDO COAL TO CHINA AND INDIA - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
In the Atlantic, the Gulf remains firm for the next week with a few orders in the market. The Supramaxes are seeing around low 20k for fronth ...
Wednesday, 05 June 13
DON'T AVOID PAYING COAL ROYALTY TO THE GOVERNMENT - INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTER
COALspot.com – “Every country has the right to make policies to protect their national interests”, Energy and Mineral Resources Mi ...
Tuesday, 04 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.56 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,563,596 tons of coal for week ended 0700 hours 3 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. said ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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