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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 24 May 13
OPG POWER VENTURES OF INDIA LOOKING FOR 210,000 MT OF 4,200 GAR INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL
COALspot.com - OPG Power Ventures Plc (OPG) is an AIM listed (London Stock Exchange) and fast growing developer and operator of power plants in Indi ...
Thursday, 23 May 13
HANDY : THE ATLANTIC MARKET REMAINS UNCHANGED - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market remains unchanged. USG-Feast rates were around USD 19k. Little change from last week in the Pacific, fewer stems and tonn ...
Thursday, 23 May 13
COLOMBIA SHIPPED 11.74 MILLION TONS OF THERMAL COAL IN Q1
COALspot.om - Colombia produced about 18,388,972.94 mt of coal for the first quarter of 2013.
Q1' 2013 coal production was around 21.42 p ...
Wednesday, 22 May 13
COKAL SIGNS JV WITH MDM, FOR BARITO RIVER BARGING
COALspot.com - Cokal Limited (ASX: CKA) has announced that it has entered into a 50:50 Joint Venture (JV) with Meratus Advance Maritime (MDM) one of ...
Tuesday, 21 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT COAL SHIPMENTS SEEN FALLING WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,205,024 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 20 May 2013, Newcast ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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