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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 09 May 13
THE WORLD LARGEST POWER PLANT COAL EXPORTER SHIPPED 36 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter has shipped 36.165* million tons of coal in March 2013.
Ac ...
Thursday, 09 May 13
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS KEEP BUILDING NEW VESSELS ON THE BACK OF LOWER PRICES AND IMPROVED MARKET PROSPECTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Despite the doom and gloom that the dry bulk market has experienced during the past couple of years and especially during 2012, ship owners have inc ...
Thursday, 09 May 13
HANDY : RBCT ROUNDS FIXED AT USD 8000 DOP ECI - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The atlantic market started to pick up with new orders. The USG-Feast was at USD 20k and Black sea-feast was at USD 12k. The pacific mkt rema ...
Wednesday, 08 May 13
PANAMAX VESSELS PROVE TO BE "STARS OF THE MONTH" FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET DURING APRIL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
They have taken a beating on various occasions during the past few years of the dry bulk market's crisis, but the fact remains, that despite the he ...
Tuesday, 07 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS HOLD STEADY WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,975,160 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 6 May 2013, Newcastl ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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