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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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